- Marubuci: By Thomas Naadi
A wannan watan na Yuli, wani jami’in hukumar makamashi na Rasha ya ziyarci Jamhuriyar Nijar don sanya hannu kan yarjejeniyar inganta makashi tsakanin ƙasashen biyu.
Yarjejeniyar ta tsara hanyoyin da ƙasashen biyu za su iya haɗaka a ɓangaren wutar lantarki da magunguna da horar da ma’aikata.
Wannan ya nuna cewa Rasha na ƙara kutsawa cikin ƙasar, wadda ke cikin waɗanda suka fi yawan ma’adinin yureniyom a duniya, da ma sauran ƙasashen yankin Sahel a nahiyar ta Afirka.
Hadaƙar ta wuce batun tattalin arziki kaɗai, domin a ɓangaren tsaro ma, Rasha ta yi amfani da lalacewar alaƙa tsakanin ƙasashen Mali da Burkina Faso da Nijar da ƙasashen yamma, inda ta samu kutsawa cikinsu.
Ganin yadda yankin ke fama da matsalolin tsaro, sai Rasha ta aika musu da sojojin haya na Wagner domin taimakon ƙasashen da makamai da horo.
Amma ganin yadda har yanzu ƙasashen ke ci gaba da fuskantar hare-hare, shin za a iya cewa alaƙa da Rasha ta yi musu rana?
Sababbin ƙawayen Moscow
Tun a 2021 Rasha ke tura dubban sojoji da makaman da suka kai miliyoyin dala zuwa Mali da Burkina Faso da Nijar.
Tana haka ne domin taimakon ƙasashen wajen yaƙi da matsalolin tsaro da ya dabaibaye yankin Sahel, inda ƙungiyoyin ƴanbindiga masu ikirarin jihadi ke amfani da raunin gwamnati da talauci da ƙiyayyar gwamnatotin ƙasashen yamma da rikice-rikicen ƙabilanci a ƙasashen wajen kutsawa.
Sojojin hayar na Rasha sai suka samu shiga, inda gwamntocin soji a ƙasashen Mali da Burkina Faso da Nijar suka riƙa ɗaga tutar Rasha a tarukansu, wanda hakan ke nuna goyon bayansu da agajin Rasha.
Hakan ya sa ƙasashen uku suka nisanta kansu daga Faransa, wadda ita ce ta raine su a baya, da ma wasu ƙasashen na yamma.
Ba kamar sauran ƙasashen na yamma ba, ita Rasha ta tura musu dakaru da makamai ba tare da wasu sharuɗa ba, wanda a lokuta da dama ke zuwa da alƙawarin tabbatar da mulkin dimokuraɗiyya.
Dakarun Wagner na Rasha sun isa Mali ne a 2021 bayan sojojin Faransa sun fice daga ƙasar, inda a shekarar 2023 sojojin Mali tare da taimakon dakarun Wagner suka ƙwace wani babban sansanin ƴanwataye da ke arewacin ƙasar.
Amma tun bayan wannan nasarar, hare-haren ƙungiyar Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal Muslimin (JNIM) mai alaƙa da al-Qaeda sai suka ƙaru.
A 2024, sama da mutum 70 ne suka rasu, sannan sama da 200 suka ji rauni a harin JNIM a babban birnin Mali, Bamako.
“Zuwan dakarun Wagner bai daƙile harkokin ƙungiyar JNIM ba,” a cewar Hani Nsaibia ta ƙungiyar ACLED.
A 2023 ne Yevgeny Prigozhin, jagoran Wagner ya rasu a haɗarin jirgin sama kwanaki kaɗan bayan ya yi yunƙurin kifar da gwamnatin Vladimir Putin a Rasha.
Sai gwamnatin Rasha ta yi wa dakarun garambawul, sai suka koma dakarun Afirka wato Africa Corps.
A watan Yunin bana ne dakarun na Wagner suka sanar da ficewarsu daga Mali, inda suka ce sun kammala aikin da ya kawo su.
A wani saƙo da suka fitar a Telegram, sun ce sun “kashe dubban ƴantawaye da shugabanninsu da suka daɗe suna addabar fararen hula.”
Ci gaba da rikice-rikice
Kamar yadda alƙaluman Global Terrorism Index suka nuna, sun ce yankin Sahel ne “cibiyar ta’addanci” na duniya, kuma a yankin ne aka samu kusan rabin mutuwa da ke da alaƙa da ta’addanci a duniya.
Haka kuma gabashin Mali da Burkina Faso sun daɗe suna fama da matsalar tsaro tun wajajen 2025.
ACLED ta ce an kashe sama da mutum 20,000, sannan sama da miliyan sun rabu da muhallansu.
A Nijar, akwai gomman sojojin Rasha da suke aiki tare da sojojin ƙasar, amma har yanzu babu wata nasarar a-zo-a-gani.
A watan Maris na bana, an kashe sama da mutum 40 a wani hari da aka kai a masallaci a yammacin Nijar.
Masanin tsaro Adib Saani ya ce mayaƙan Nijar da Mali da Burkina Faso sun ƙara ƙaimi ne saboda ficewar ƙasashen yamma.
Andre Lebovich, wani mai bincike a cibiyar Clingendael Institute da ke Netherlands, ya ce sojojin Rasha da ke yankin Sahel aiki ya musu yawa, wanda hakan ne ma a cewarsa ya sa JNIM suka faɗaɗa zuwa ƙasashen Togo da Benin.
Rashin ƙarfin soji
Ƙwararre a fannin tsaro a Yammacin Afirka Hani Nsaibia ya ce sojojin Rasha da ke aiki a yankin Sahel sun yi ƙaranci, wanda hakan ya sa yake ganin ba sa samun nasara.
Rahotanni sun ce an janye wasu sojojin Rasha saboda yaƙin Ukraine, wanda hakan ya haifar da giɓi saboda babu sojojin wanzar da zaman lafiya daga ƙasashen yamma.
“Zai yi wahala sojojin Rasha 2,000 su iya maye gurbin sojojin wanzar da zaman lafiya kimanin 18,000 da ke aiki a yankin a baya,” in ji shi.
A wani taron tsaro a watan jiya, ministan harkokin wajen Rasha, Sergey Lavrov ya nanata cewa ƙasar za ta ci gaba da taimakon ƙasashen Afirka domin wanzar da zaman lafiya.
Amma masana na ganin magana kawai ba za ta iya wadatar ba, “domin mutanen yankin da dama suna rayuwa ne a kullum a ƙasa da dala, ga kuma rashin ababen more rayuwa,” in ji masanin tsaron Ghana, Adib Saani.